Welcome back to another edition of My Take 5, your weekly wrap of international news. Ukraine war remains in flux, Trump is targeting Chinese ships, Pakistan and Bangladesh hold foreign secretary talks, Saudi Arabia and Qatar are back to shadow boxing, and Pope Francis passes away. So let’s get to it.
Ukraine war in flux: The war in Ukraine saw many unconnected developments over the past week, none of which brings us any closer to a ceasefire or a peace deal. First, two Chinese nationals were captured in Ukraine’s Donetsk oblast fighting for Russia . President Zelenskyy then revealed that Kyiv had information that more than 150 Chinese citizens are fighting for Russia in the war. Beijing, of course, has denied any official involvement. But it is not clear if Beijing had no role whatsoever in Chinese citizens joining the Russian army. After all, China has massively helped Russia in this war by supporting Moscow’s military-industrial complex, freely exporting dual-use tech, and even getting the Russian military the critical Western tech components it needed by bypassing sanctions. So, one wouldn’t be surprised if China’s United Front Work Department somehow facilitated these Chinese citizens to join the Russian army.
As I have mentioned in my previous wraps, I fully subscribe to Velina Tchakarova’s thesis that democracies today face a Dragon-Bear challenge. The strategic compact between China and Russia is real. And if Chinese and North Korean citizens are bleeding with Russians on Ukrainian battlefields, the Moscow-Beijing-Pyongyang relationship is being cemented in blood. Therefore, there’s nothing that the US Trump administration can do to separate Russia from China. And consequently, it is fruitless to give in to Moscow’s demands on Ukraine to get Russia on US’s side – it just won’t happen.
Russia has no intention of stopping the war or agreeing to a ceasefire – Ukraine, however, had agreed to the US proposal for a full 30-day ceasefire. On Palm Sunday on April 13, Russian missiles hit the Ukrainian city of Sumy, killing 35 people, including children. A day earlier, Russia struck Indian pharma company Kusum’s warehouse in Kyiv, causing massive damage. Kusum has been providing both humanitarian aid to emergency services in Ukraine and producing life-saving drugs. Targeting of Kusum’s warehouse shows the indiscriminate nature of Russia’s bombing.
Towards the end of the week, Putin said he was ordering a day-long ceasefire for Easter. But even this did not hold with Russia firing its artilleries at multiple points. Finally, Trump said that he is ready to walk away from brokering a truce if he thought there weren’t clear signs of progress from Russia or Ukraine. Again, Ukraine had agreed to the ceasefire proposal. Russia didn’t. Trump may be just realising that he got all his calculations wrong about ending the war. And his strategy of placating Moscow simply isn’t working.
US targets Chinese ships: Washington is going ahead with plans to target Chinese ships, albeit in a milder form than what was earlier proposed. From mid-October, Chinese-owned or operated ships heading for US will be charged $50 per net tonne port fees, while Chinese ships owned by non-Chinese firms will be charged $18 per net tonne. The rates will then increase by $5-$30 a year over the next three years. The ostensible plan is to revive US shipbuilding in the face of China’s overwhelming dominance in global shipping. Chinese-built ships today form a major part of the fleets of all top 10 global shipping companies, and Chinese firm COSCO is the second-largest ocean transporter with the largest container fleet.
So Washington wants to break this Chinese stranglehold over global shipping – more than 80% of global trade is by ships. But this is easier said than done. China, over the last decade-and-a-half, methodically went about dominating the industry by blurring the lines between its massive naval development and commercial shipbuilding. With huge state subsidies, Chinese companies like the state-owned China State Shipbuilding Corporation became shipbuilding behemoths. As a result, China today churns out more than 1,700 ships a year; US only about five. Therefore, Trump may try, but this ship has literally sailed. There is no catching China in shipbuilding in the near future.
But at least the Trump administration, to its credit for once, is thinking about domains in which China gained dominance through moves that go against open market practices. China has gamed the system for too long. It was allowed to do so in the hope that the Chinese Communist Party could be co-opted to undertake political reforms. That dream has been proven to be hollow and China today stands as the biggest danger to democracy and open systems everywhere.
Pakistan-Bangladesh foreign secretary talks: In further thawing of ties between Pakistan and Bangladesh, the two sides held foreign secretary-level talks in Dhaka last week after a gap of 15 years. This clearly is a result of the regime change in Bangladesh. The previous Awami League dispensation in Dhaka had downgraded relations with Islamabad. But all that is being reversed under the new Muhammad Yunus regime. This is of course a matter of concern for India. After Pakistan army chief Gen Asim Munir’s recent vitriolic speech with anti-India undertones, there are apprehensions that the Pakistani military-intelligence complex is back to its old tricks of cultivating Bangladesh as a base against New Delhi.
Therefore, India needs to be extremely alert here. Bangladesh is walking on the path to East Pakistan. This is neither in New Delhi’s interest nor in Dhaka’s. Bangladesh must hold free and fair elections by the end of the year with the participation of all parties, and drop the anti-India posture. Good relations with India is the road to Bangladesh’s economic prosperity. Pakistan, meanwhile, is a failed state. Bangladeshis surely will choose wisely.
Saudi vs Qatar shadow boxing?: Saudi Arabia and Qatar may be engaging in another round of shadow boxing. While Riyadh has been hosting high-level diplomatic parleys in recent weeks – most notably between US and Ukraine, and US and Russia – Doha is also making parallel moves. For example, Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani visited Russia last week and told Putin that Syria's new leadership that ousted Moscow-backed Assad is now keen to renew relations with the Russian side. This message delivered by the Qatari Emir himself means that Doha is playing a carefully crafted strategic game here.
It's well known that Trump and Qatar have beef. He is much more pally with the Saudis and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. In his first term, Trump had accused Qatar of terrorism and the Saudis had imposed a blockage against Doha. With Trump back in the White House and Riyadh gaining prominence in international diplomacy, Qatar perhaps feels the need to make its own moves to have strategic leverage. And reaching out to Russia over Syria is a check against US-Saudi-Israeli channels with the new Syrian leadership. Moscow of course would love to retain a foothold in Syria. Therefore, expect Qatar, which also hosted Hamas's political office till recently, to make moves to check Saudi influence in the region.
Pope Francis passes away: After a prolonged period of illness, Pope Francis passed away a day after Easter. He leaves behind a significant legacy. Pope Francis tried to make the Catholic Church more open to the LGBTQ community and lead greater acceptance of gay marriages. But he also faced resistance from conservative members of the church. On the temporal front, Pope Francis had in the last decade tried to set the ground for a rapprochement between the Catholic Church and the Eastern Orthodox Churches by meeting Patriarch Kirill of the Russian Orthodox Church in 2016 – a first such meeting between the primates of the two churches since the great split in 1054. But that turned out to be too ambitious an effort.
Nonetheless, Pope Francis will be remembered for trying to make the Catholic Church more relevant in the everyday lives of the faithful. He leaves behind big shoes to fill for his successor.
Ukraine war in flux: The war in Ukraine saw many unconnected developments over the past week, none of which brings us any closer to a ceasefire or a peace deal. First, two Chinese nationals were captured in Ukraine’s Donetsk oblast fighting for Russia . President Zelenskyy then revealed that Kyiv had information that more than 150 Chinese citizens are fighting for Russia in the war. Beijing, of course, has denied any official involvement. But it is not clear if Beijing had no role whatsoever in Chinese citizens joining the Russian army. After all, China has massively helped Russia in this war by supporting Moscow’s military-industrial complex, freely exporting dual-use tech, and even getting the Russian military the critical Western tech components it needed by bypassing sanctions. So, one wouldn’t be surprised if China’s United Front Work Department somehow facilitated these Chinese citizens to join the Russian army.
As I have mentioned in my previous wraps, I fully subscribe to Velina Tchakarova’s thesis that democracies today face a Dragon-Bear challenge. The strategic compact between China and Russia is real. And if Chinese and North Korean citizens are bleeding with Russians on Ukrainian battlefields, the Moscow-Beijing-Pyongyang relationship is being cemented in blood. Therefore, there’s nothing that the US Trump administration can do to separate Russia from China. And consequently, it is fruitless to give in to Moscow’s demands on Ukraine to get Russia on US’s side – it just won’t happen.
Russia has no intention of stopping the war or agreeing to a ceasefire – Ukraine, however, had agreed to the US proposal for a full 30-day ceasefire. On Palm Sunday on April 13, Russian missiles hit the Ukrainian city of Sumy, killing 35 people, including children. A day earlier, Russia struck Indian pharma company Kusum’s warehouse in Kyiv, causing massive damage. Kusum has been providing both humanitarian aid to emergency services in Ukraine and producing life-saving drugs. Targeting of Kusum’s warehouse shows the indiscriminate nature of Russia’s bombing.
Towards the end of the week, Putin said he was ordering a day-long ceasefire for Easter. But even this did not hold with Russia firing its artilleries at multiple points. Finally, Trump said that he is ready to walk away from brokering a truce if he thought there weren’t clear signs of progress from Russia or Ukraine. Again, Ukraine had agreed to the ceasefire proposal. Russia didn’t. Trump may be just realising that he got all his calculations wrong about ending the war. And his strategy of placating Moscow simply isn’t working.
US targets Chinese ships: Washington is going ahead with plans to target Chinese ships, albeit in a milder form than what was earlier proposed. From mid-October, Chinese-owned or operated ships heading for US will be charged $50 per net tonne port fees, while Chinese ships owned by non-Chinese firms will be charged $18 per net tonne. The rates will then increase by $5-$30 a year over the next three years. The ostensible plan is to revive US shipbuilding in the face of China’s overwhelming dominance in global shipping. Chinese-built ships today form a major part of the fleets of all top 10 global shipping companies, and Chinese firm COSCO is the second-largest ocean transporter with the largest container fleet.
So Washington wants to break this Chinese stranglehold over global shipping – more than 80% of global trade is by ships. But this is easier said than done. China, over the last decade-and-a-half, methodically went about dominating the industry by blurring the lines between its massive naval development and commercial shipbuilding. With huge state subsidies, Chinese companies like the state-owned China State Shipbuilding Corporation became shipbuilding behemoths. As a result, China today churns out more than 1,700 ships a year; US only about five. Therefore, Trump may try, but this ship has literally sailed. There is no catching China in shipbuilding in the near future.
But at least the Trump administration, to its credit for once, is thinking about domains in which China gained dominance through moves that go against open market practices. China has gamed the system for too long. It was allowed to do so in the hope that the Chinese Communist Party could be co-opted to undertake political reforms. That dream has been proven to be hollow and China today stands as the biggest danger to democracy and open systems everywhere.
Pakistan-Bangladesh foreign secretary talks: In further thawing of ties between Pakistan and Bangladesh, the two sides held foreign secretary-level talks in Dhaka last week after a gap of 15 years. This clearly is a result of the regime change in Bangladesh. The previous Awami League dispensation in Dhaka had downgraded relations with Islamabad. But all that is being reversed under the new Muhammad Yunus regime. This is of course a matter of concern for India. After Pakistan army chief Gen Asim Munir’s recent vitriolic speech with anti-India undertones, there are apprehensions that the Pakistani military-intelligence complex is back to its old tricks of cultivating Bangladesh as a base against New Delhi.
Therefore, India needs to be extremely alert here. Bangladesh is walking on the path to East Pakistan. This is neither in New Delhi’s interest nor in Dhaka’s. Bangladesh must hold free and fair elections by the end of the year with the participation of all parties, and drop the anti-India posture. Good relations with India is the road to Bangladesh’s economic prosperity. Pakistan, meanwhile, is a failed state. Bangladeshis surely will choose wisely.
Saudi vs Qatar shadow boxing?: Saudi Arabia and Qatar may be engaging in another round of shadow boxing. While Riyadh has been hosting high-level diplomatic parleys in recent weeks – most notably between US and Ukraine, and US and Russia – Doha is also making parallel moves. For example, Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani visited Russia last week and told Putin that Syria's new leadership that ousted Moscow-backed Assad is now keen to renew relations with the Russian side. This message delivered by the Qatari Emir himself means that Doha is playing a carefully crafted strategic game here.
It's well known that Trump and Qatar have beef. He is much more pally with the Saudis and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. In his first term, Trump had accused Qatar of terrorism and the Saudis had imposed a blockage against Doha. With Trump back in the White House and Riyadh gaining prominence in international diplomacy, Qatar perhaps feels the need to make its own moves to have strategic leverage. And reaching out to Russia over Syria is a check against US-Saudi-Israeli channels with the new Syrian leadership. Moscow of course would love to retain a foothold in Syria. Therefore, expect Qatar, which also hosted Hamas's political office till recently, to make moves to check Saudi influence in the region.
Pope Francis passes away: After a prolonged period of illness, Pope Francis passed away a day after Easter. He leaves behind a significant legacy. Pope Francis tried to make the Catholic Church more open to the LGBTQ community and lead greater acceptance of gay marriages. But he also faced resistance from conservative members of the church. On the temporal front, Pope Francis had in the last decade tried to set the ground for a rapprochement between the Catholic Church and the Eastern Orthodox Churches by meeting Patriarch Kirill of the Russian Orthodox Church in 2016 – a first such meeting between the primates of the two churches since the great split in 1054. But that turned out to be too ambitious an effort.
Nonetheless, Pope Francis will be remembered for trying to make the Catholic Church more relevant in the everyday lives of the faithful. He leaves behind big shoes to fill for his successor.
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