Shock resignation in Tokyo: Japan faces leadership crisis as PM Ishiba steps down; who are the top contenders for the post?

In a stunning turn of events, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba tendered his resignation late Sunday night, setting off a political domino effect that could reshape the leadership of the world’s fourth-largest economy, and possibly usher in an opposition government for the first time in over a decade.

His exit comes after months of internal rebellion, mounting public dissatisfaction, and the historic collapse of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party ’s (LDP) parliamentary majority. With Ishiba gone and his party in disarray, Japan now finds itself navigating treacherous political waters with no clear successor, and, for the first time in generations, no guarantee that the LDP will stay in power.

Why did Ishiba step down?

After clinging to power for nearly a year amid dwindling support and open defiance from within his party, Ishiba’s resignation was as dramatic as it was inevitable.

Behind closed doors, the pressure had been building for weeks. His own Cabinet was fracturing. Four senior LDP officials, including the party’s influential second-in-command Hiroshi Moriyama, offered to resign in protest. Even former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, now Agriculture Minister, reportedly visited Ishiba’s residence on Saturday night to “gently encourage” him to step down.

Public broadcaster NHK reported that Ishiba resigned to prevent a full-blown party split, while the Asahi Shimbun said he simply “could not withstand” the rebellion.

His timing was strategic, and desperate. Ishiba stepped down just one day before the LDP was set to debate a motion that would have triggered an early leadership vote, essentially a no-confidence challenge.

The battle for Japan’s next leader

With Ishiba out, attention now turns to an unpredictable race to become both LDP president and possibly Japan’s next prime minister, although, in a break from post-war tradition, those two roles may no longer belong to the same person.

The LDP’s internal election will pit seasoned veterans against rising stars:

Sanae Takaichi (64), a hawkish conservative and potential first female PM, promises to double down on military readiness and fiscal stimulus.

Shinjiro Koizumi (44), the charismatic reformer and son of a former PM, brings youth and celebrity but little clarity on economic policy.

Yoshimasa Hayashi (64), a Harvard-educated moderate and former Foreign Minister, represents a safe but steady hand.

But here’s the twist: even if one of them wins the LDP leadership, it doesn't guarantee the prime ministership. With no majority in either house of Parliament, the party must now negotiate or risk ceding control.

Opposition’s opening: Could Japan break the ldp’s stranglehold?

The power vacuum gives Japan’s fragmented opposition a rare shot at the top job. And two contenders are already positioning themselves for an unprecedented comeback:

Yoshihiko Noda (68), the veteran leader of the Constitutional Democratic Party, was once PM during the turbulent Fukushima years. He's now refashioned himself as a fiscal realist who wants to temporarily cut consumption taxes — a major vote-winner amid Japan's sluggish recovery.

Yuichiro Tamaki (56), head of the surging Democratic Party for the People, offers a populist, tax-slashing platform mixed with national security hawkishness.

If enough independents and minor parties rally behind either man, the unthinkable could happen: a non-LDP prime minister — only the second since 1955.

What happens next: A chaotic road ahead

Here’s the procedural maze Japan must now navigate:

LDP elects a new leader, potentially within weeks.

Parliament votes on a new Prime Minister. With no clear majority, the lower and upper houses may split — and in that case, the lower house’s choice prevails.

The new Prime Minister, whoever it is, may call a snap election to cement authority, risking further chaos.

Why this matters beyond japan

Japan is not just the world’s fourth-largest economy — it's also a critical player in the U.S.-China rivalry, a pillar of the global tech supply chain, and a frontline state in the new Cold War over Taiwan.

A leadership change now could alter Japan’s course on everything from military expansion and Taiwan policy to monetary tightening and nuclear energy.

Investors are already jittery. The Nikkei dropped 2.3% in early trading Monday, and the yen briefly surged on speculation of a fiscal stimulus pause.