IPL 2025 Qualification Scenarios: How can Chennai Super Kings still qualify for playoffs loss against MI?

IPL 2025 Qualification Scenarios: How can Chennai Super Kings still qualify for playoffs loss against MI? (Photo Source: IPL)

Ahead of the commencement of the ongoing edition of the Indian Premier League, there were a lot of expectations from to dominate the league considering the kind of mega auction they had prior to the season. They were one of the strongest sides on paper coming into the tournament.

However, has unfolded completely opposite to how the supporters anticipated. The five-time champions have been able to win only two of their eight games in the season so far. Their most-recent loss against arch-rivals Mumbai Indians at the Wankhede Stadium by nine wickets has further deepened their woes.

As of the start of April 21, CSK stand rock bottom in the points table. Eight games in, their net run rate is the lowest (-1.392) amongst the other nine franchises. CSK have qualified for the playoffs 12 times in their 16-season history. Below are the basic requirements for teams to ensure playoff qualification, CSK's remaining matches, and possible pathways through which CSK can still make it into the top four of the league.

Basic Requirements for Playoff Qualification

The IPL has strictly followed a 10-team format since 2022. Since then, the following trends have been observed:

• 16 points (8 wins): Virtually through to the playoffs.
• 14 points (7 wins): Still a chance to make it to the top four. However, that depends on the NRR as well as how other results pan out (example: RCB in 2024).
• 12 points (6 wins): Quite rare. Only once has a team with 12 points made it through to the playoffs (SRH in IPL 2019).

Remaining Matches for CSK

The MS Dhoni-led have a total of six games remaining ahead. The fixture list is as follows:

• vs SRH: Chennai, April 25, 7:30 pm
• vs PBKS: Chennai, April 30, 7:30 pm
• vs CSK: Bengaluru, May 3, 7:30 pm
• vs CSK: Kolkata, May 7, 7:30 pm
• vs RR: Chennai, May 12, 7:30 pm
• vs CSK: Ahmedabad, May 18, 3:30 pm

Also Check:

Qualification Scenarios Scenario 1: CSK win all six of their remaining games

Total Wins: 2 (current) + 6 = 8

Total Points: 4 (current) + 12 = 16

Outcome: Historically, 16 points is a safe threshold for any team trying to book their berth in the playoffs. However, CSK will have to ensure they improve their NRR in case of other teams landing up on the same tally.

Scenario 2: CSK win five out of their remaining six games

Total Wins: 2 (current) + 5 = 7

Total Points: 4 (current) + 10 = 14

Outcome: While there’s still a chance to secure a top-four finish, it’s far from guaranteed. The heavily negative NRR doesn't help their case either. Despite them getting to 14 points, other sides on the same number are likely to pip CSK.

Scenario 3: CSK win four out of their remaining six games

Total Wins: 2 (current) + 4 = 6

Total Points: 4 (current) + 8 = 12

Outcome: It's highly improbable that CSK reach the playoffs after landing up with 12 points. They would need some extraordinary luck as against other results to go their way. Other than CSK requiring a string of emphatic wins to boost their NRR, they would also need two or even more of the current five sides to suffer drastic slumps of form for them to end up on the 10 to 12-point mark.

Also Check:

Scenario 4: CSK win three out of their remaining six games

Total Wins: 2 (current) + 3 = 5

Total Points: 4 (current) + 6 = 10

Outcome: The probability of a finish in even the fourth position is 0. All of the five teams currently occupying the fourth position on the table have 10 points in their kitty. It's practically impossible for all of the sides to remain on the same number by the end of the league phase.